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When Voldy had just killed Harry's parents, leaving Harry orphaned, and Dumbledore is speaking with Snape about needing to protect Harry...
Snape is refusing, telling Dumbledore that the Dark Lord is gone for good and that Harry does not need protection.
Dumbledore tells Snape, instead, that Voldy will be back.
Question:How does Dumbledore know that Voldy is not defeated for good?
It can't be the prophecy that Dumbledore heard, b/c Snape eaves-dropped on it and he is not convinced that Voldy is coming back.
Snape is refusing, telling Dumbledore that the Dark Lord is gone for good and that Harry does not need protection.
Dumbledore tells Snape, instead, that Voldy will be back.
Question:How does Dumbledore know that Voldy is not defeated for good?
It can't be the prophecy that Dumbledore heard, b/c Snape eaves-dropped on it and he is not convinced that Voldy is coming back.
geeky
Lynn
I kinda read through DH, and got a bit quiet. Then these random things would filter into the brain, the brain would go think on them, and realize that the book did not answer them. From your response, I gather that there is no information for how Dumbledore could have possibly known.
Myself, I was going in the direction that Dumbledore took a look at Snape's undisappeared Dark Mark, and realized that Voldy was not vanquished.
If Dumbledore knew about Horcruxes this early, he'd've gotten to 'em before Harry even got to Hogwarts, way I figure it. Then he'd've gone over to the Dursleys with a big ole ax and chopped Harry to pieces, destroying him so that Voldy does not return. (this sounds like it'd make a rather wonky crackfic, tho, LoL).
I was actually leaning to him recognizing the curse on the DADA position, and just who cursed it. If the curse is still active, Voldy isn't gone. Problem with this is that it would have taken Dumbledore a year to figure it out (from October 1981 to June 1982), waiting for the DADA master to die some horrible death. That meant that Harry'd've stayed wtih someone other than the Dursleys, b/c Dumbledore'd've had no reason to *protect* Harry from Voldy if he weren't sure Voldy would come back.
Does that mean that this is a plot hole? O_o
There is also the Dark Mark, as you point out, which might have been another way of knowing that Voldemort was alive. If Snape didn't think it was reason to believe he'd be back, then it would be questionable for Dumbledore to base his conviction that Voldemort was alive on that, even if it would have turned out to be right.
As for the curse on the DADA position, you pointed to a scene well before the end of the school year in which Dumbledore's already convinced that Voldemort isn't dead. That scene sounds like the first time Snape talked to Dumbledore after that, so it's almost certainly in November. Probably only a day, or two at most, after Halloween.
Lynn
The prophecy gives hints. Severus only knew a small part, not the 'one has to die by the hand of the other' and not the 'neither can live while the other survives'. Both were not yet fulfilled, when Voldemort vanished. In addition Voldemort's looks when he applied for the DADA job, seemed to suggest a damaged soul. Both combined are enough for an educated guess that there was one Horcrux of whatever kind. Dumbledore usually acts on educated guesses.
If we trust Dumbledore's own words, he only started to suspect a Horcrux in Harry, when Harry came to Hogwarts and reacted on Voldemort's presence. Dumbledore explicitly says he was sure that there was more than one, because of the casual treatment and nature of the diary Horcrux.
Dumbledore certainly knew that there was something strange about Harry's scar, but that matches the prophecy (mark him as equal).
Dumbledore certainly knew that there was more than one after seeing the Diary; we know that because he doesn't say, "This is great! Now Voldemort is *really* dead!"
However, neither does he start looking for other horcruxes.
Between that and Dumbledore's words to Harry at the end of CoS about Voldemort having given him some of his powers, Dumbeldore had to have known by then, at least, that Harry was a horcrux. He doesn't make it sound like that in HBP, but he didn't want Harry to know yet that he was going to have to die.
If we trust Dumbledore's own words, he only started to suspect a Horcrux in Harry, when Harry came to Hogwarts and reacted on Voldemort's presence.
Under the circumstances, I don't think we *can* trust Dumbledore to be honest. The information we have from him comes from things he said to Harry, and he wouldn't want to tell Harry anything that would lead him to wonder about Dumbledore's actions -- since Dumbledore was, after all, setting Harry up to be killed.
That doesn't mean that Dumbledore was lying, but it means that he'd've said what he did whether or not it was true.
Lynn
It's probably this. Snape only heard a part of the prophecy, you're so right!!!!!! Forgot about that. But Voldy *did* spend a nice amount of time in Harry's 5th year trying to figure out what it was Dumbledore knew that he didn't. (LoL - what Dumbledore knows that Voldy doesn't can fill a book!^^).
As for knowing about Horcruxes... it seems that Dumbledore had figured the Horcruxes thing out in Harry's 2nd year, when Harry gives him a defeated Horcrux. I think if Dumbledore knew about Horcruxes earlier, he'd've started a bit earlier to find and destroy them, as in, before Harry is even in Hogwarts.
I like the 'full prophecy' explanation -- that'd probably do it. And it explains what it is Dumbledore knows that Snape doesn't. ;)
And Albus' entire treatment of Harry - from leaving him on the front steps on a November night, through leaving him with the Dursleys despite Arabella's reports, through choosing Hagrid to be the one to deliver the letter to Harry and everything else was done because Albus was planning for Harry to die and he needed to brainwash him into unquestioning obedience so that he would do so.
On another note: regardless of how Dumbledore came to the conclusion that Voldemort was still alive, in some state, it's interesting to think about how he convinced the Wizarding World. He can't have told them any details of the evidence, no matter what his reasoning was. No way would he tell them about horcruxes, or even the prophecy, and we know that the Dark Marks weren't well-known, since even Fudge didn't know about them when Snape showed him his in GoF.
So unless I'm missing something, the WW's whole belief of Voldemort is based on Dumbledore's unsupported word, plus the usual human fear that terrible things don't just go away that simply. It puts the WW's disbelief in Voldemort's return in OotP in an interesting light.
Lynn
Because the prophecy speaks of (at least) 2 encounters between Tom and Harry - in the first Tom will mark Harry as his equal and in the second 'either must die at the hand of the other'.
It is the prophecy that made Albus realize the meaning of Harry's scar - why does the scar make them equal? Because they both contain Tom's soul. And that is also why Harry was the one with the power to vanquish Tom - not because of any talent of his (he didn't have any that was relevant) but because his death could destroy Tom (well, once the other Horcruxes were gone, but Albus only learned of them later).
If Dumbledore knew about Horcruxes this early, he'd've gotten to 'em before Harry even got to Hogwarts, way I figure it.
Albus knew what Horcruxes were by the 1940s. Even before he became headmaster. He banned the topic and confiscated the books (Horace tells young Tom that it was specifically Albus who banned the teaching of the topic).
He knew about Tom's collection of trinkets whenever it was that he spoke to Morfin and Hokey, probably in the 1950s (because I can't see them surviving for many decades after their respective framings, and there were plenty of leads Albus could have followed). He did not know to what purpose Tom collected the objects until Harry returned from the graveyard and said that Tom spoke of multiple experiments in immortality, of going beyond anyone else before him down that path.
But he knew Harry was a Horcrux from day one. Because he saw the scar, and he figured out that Harry was saved because of Lily's sacrifice. So he knew Tom's AK couldn't have possibly hit Harry. Yet something did - hence the scar. He realized that what hit Harry was Tom's soul.
At that point of time Dumbledore hasn't seen Harry or his scar, yet. Hagrid may have sent a short report, but no more.
My problem with 'Dumbledore knew immediately' is that the Harrycrux accident is an extremely unlikely occurrence. Nobody has ever made more than one Horcrux before; never has anyone made so many that his soul became so instable that a broken piece splits from the main soul by itself and manges to settle in something/someone else.
I don't deny that Dumbledore can have figured it out very early, after he saw Harry himself and thought a bit about it, but not at the time he told Severus that Voldemort will return.
He doesn't really need to know about the Harrycrux to know that Voldemort had at least one and therfore will be back.
So, if Voldemort had been trying/planning to make a horcrux out of Harry's death, and Lily's sacrificial protection interfered... who knows what might happen just from that? Voldemort's soul wouldn't necessarily have had to be in tatters for a horcrux to be created, especially not if he was trying to make one anyway, and when he'd just killed two people, causing recent soul-shredding.
It may be tempting to assume that if Dumbledore reached a correct conclusion, then he must have followed the correct path to get there -- but he could easily have reached the right conclusion for partially wrong reasons.
Lynn
Well... Dumbledore knows, during this conversation with Severus, that Harry survived. So whenever that conversation took place, *someone* had seen Harry alive, and told Dumbledore. We're running into that "missing 24 hours" issue. Hagrid apparently found Harry in the ruins of his home, then spent a full 24 hours flying Harry to Surrey. And talked to Dumbledore by magic on the way, perhaps, so that he'd know where to take Harry in the first place?
But then, Dumbledore knows things by the time of the conversation with McGonagall on Privet Drive, things that he wouldn't've known if he didn't go to the Potters' house during those 24 hours. Specifically, Dumbledore knows that Lily died to save Harry. It isn't *just* that Dumbledore mentions this in PS/SS; this is the basis for the blood protection at the Dursleys, so he presumably knows it at the time he decided to have Harry live with the Dursleys. Since Dumbledore wasn't present at the time of the murder, he had to have based his conclusions about Lily's sacrifice on the positioning of bodies, or things like that.
So, possibility #1: The missing 24 hours thing is awkward no matter what, but it isn't any more awkward if Dumbledore saw Harry and his scar in person before his conversation with McGonagall on Privet Drive, *and* before his conversation with Severus. It wouldn't have to delay the conversation with Severus for very long, either; certainly no more than a day.
Possibility #2: Even aside from all of that, though, I don't find it hard to believe that Dumbledore would put off dealing with Severus' grief for a day (until after we *know* he saw Harry on Privet Drive) if he decided he had more important matters to deal with. Dumbledore would put off dealing with *Harry's* grief if he thought he had more important business. (Heck, doesn't he do just that, briefly, at the end of OotP, when he sends Harry to his office alone after Sirius' death?)
Lynn
1. Severus was there, and told him, or-
2. He used legilemency on baby Harry.
Either one would work. It's almost certain that he examined Harry at some point.
My two cents.
Dumbly doesn't *need* to know that Harry's a living horcrux. He could just merely suspect that something unintended like that happened. Dumbly acts on hunches and guesses, and is an accomplished legilimens. One dead Voldy, two dead parents (who as we know would show no physical signs of death and this is usually indicative of the killing curse,) one living Harry. Knowledge of the whole prophecy, enter suspicion that Harry & Voldy are meant to meet again. Legilmency on baby!Harry to actually read what happened, so then Dumbly can see flat-out how Lily sacrificed herself despite Voldy's (brief?) attempt to spare her. Apparently the blood sacrifice protection was only possible *because* Voldy actually did give a chance to spare Lily's life, she was a willing sacrifice that didn't need to happen or someshit like that, and Dumbly would've seen that bit and known exactly what it meant. Possible sensing of the bit of Voldy that latched on to Harry. Hell maybe there was a bit of Voldy's left-over spirit ruins once his body died that like, flew out the window or someshit. Dumbly would've seen that.
So like he could've figured out the horcrux thing then and I'm not claiming otherwise. Just, there's other stuff that could've happened plausibly in those missing 24 hours that had Dumbly making the decisions and taking the actions that he did. I find the horcrux-knowing concept interesting, and yes Dumbly knew about that stuff. But like, maybe he suspected something similar like that had gone down, but given his predilection to act on hunches and guesses (and yeah he was right at times) and some sort of otherwordly sense basically, yeah, I think it'd be all too plausible that Dumbly didn't think of a horcrux effect or else he perhaps suspected the possibility rather than flat-out knowing for sure. Though flat-out knowing for sure is also plausible.
-Mirazh
Sionna_Raven:
Thank you for this comment.
How could Albus have figured out about the blood protection without knowing *something* about the circumstances of Lily's death - that she (but not James) was near Harry when she died, and that she had no wand on her.
no,no,no!
No, no, no! He's not going to tear his *own* soul, when he could leave that to any random by putting baby-Harry somewhere that protects him only against *Voldemort*. Even if it's possible for anyone other than Voldemort to kill Harry - which is anyway doubtful because "Either must die at the hand of the *other*" - Dumbledore won't do it himself and he doesn't have anyone at his command who'd do it for him.
I would say that the prophecy itself indicates that Voldemort will return because
1) "the Dark Lord will mark him as his equal" comes *before* "either must die"
2) the one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord" is said *twice*, once at the beginning and once at the end.
So the marking has to come before the dying, and the vanquishing has to happen twice.
Snape couldn't know that because he got caught after the first "born as the seventh month dies" so he didn't hear either of those points.
So no plothole. Just a ruthless Dumbledore who, IMO, thinks Harry is the *only* Horcrux and when Voldie AKs him they'll both die (like they did in DH, except without the coming back.)
duj
Psst. (I'd rather have the plothole.^^) *puts a tiny lantern up Dumbledore's bum so that light can shine out of one more orifice* LUMOS MAXIMUS!!!!!!! :P
My problem with 'Dumbledore knew immediately' is that the Harrycrux accident is an extremely unlikely occurrence. Nobody has ever made more than one Horcrux before; never has anyone made so many that his soul became so instable that a broken piece splits from the main soul by itself and manges to settle in something/someone else.
I don't deny that Dumbledore can have figured it out very early, after he saw Harry himself and thought a bit about it, but not at the time he told Severus that Voldemort will return.
Sionna_raven has made a brilliant point here. Dumbledore is brilliant, and, given time, certainly *did* figure out that Voldy is not gone for good. At the point, though, it was still too early for him to know everything that happened, so, as one very wise person told me, sometimes the simple explanation is the best.
So here it is. (it is not mine, but I am reposting it for the sake of having this question answered). Thank you, you brilliant person you, for this answer. *loves* :D
The simple fact is that there was no body when Voldemort was defeated. JKR is very careful to always say that Voldemort was defeated and not killed. That, plus, the fact that Harry has a cursed scar leads Dumbledore to conclude that Voldemort's power has broken, but that he isn't dead.
So, yeah, Horcrux Theory is long and insanely complicated (which denotes a person who had the time to sit down and think on it a while, not a wizard facing the disappearance of a dark wizard and a one-year-old child with a scar on his forehead in his wake.)
The possibilities are:
a) The conversation took place an entire day later, after Harry was placed with the Dursleys
b) The conversation took place that night, but after Albus heard at the very least from someone who visited the death scene (or after having visited it himself). The Potter household was magical. Hagrid says he got Harry before the Muggles started swarming around. But someone from the Ministry's Magical Catastrophe's department must have shown up at some point, to prevent Muggles from finding objects such as wands or Harry's toy broomstick (or to Obliviate those who did). Or perhaps Albus himself investigated the crime scene to see what he could learn and to do the covering up himself. In any case, someone started the rumors about Harry that very night - Minerva heard them before she arrived at 4PD around 8:30 am.
Happy to disagree :)
I agree with you that Dumbledore had even detailed knowledge of what happened at the attack
a) by his surveillance charms on GH which were the reason he sent Hagrid. Those charms could have told him about the two AKs, the outbreak of Ancient Magic and the backfired AK on Harry.
b) by a short report from Hagrid who is known to carry an owl in his pocket. Hagrid could have told him that James' body was at the foot of the stairs, Lily's in the nursery and that Harry survived with a strange scar on his forehead. This tells him the order of their deaths and that it was Lily's death which triggered the Ancient Magic.
For the conversation with Severus taking place the same night; I assume shortly after midnight (end of the Halloween feast); with these information available to him without much problem he only needs to know about one regular Horcrux for which he already had circumstantial evidence (Voldemort's red eyes, the prophecy).
Re: Happy to disagree :)
Re: Happy to disagree :)
I don't seem to get it.
We need a lot of theorizing and assumptions to achieve that. It makes Dumbledore look almost omniscient and by that -especially, if he postponed the conversation for a day- rather unpleasant. I don't mind a nasty Dumbledore, but IMO he's bad enough already.
Simple question: What is achieved by that theory, for the plot or our interpretation/understanding?
Re: Happy to disagree :)
For instance, I would agree that in *retrospect*, the prophecy could be seen as predicting at least two confrontations between Voldemort and Harry, but I wouldn't have felt sure of that without additional knowledge besides the prophecy. I.e., the Dark Lord could mark him as his equal as part of the one confrontation.
When you consider the line "neither can live while the other survives," and how that worked out in the story.... There's no literal way in which that line turned out to be true, so it would have turned out to be pretty dangerous to assume that Voldemort couldn't become corporeal again while Harry lived, or something. And even that conclusion would require stretching the meaning of the line, since Voldemort wasn't actually dead while he was non-corporeal.
So, given Dumbledore's distrust of the field of Divination, and his apparent certainty that Voldemort wasn't gone, it makes sense to me that he had more than the prophecy to go on. Since there *is* more information that Dumbledore could have had, at that point, that would give him that certainty... to me it makes sense to conclude that he had that information already.
Lynn
Re: Happy to disagree :)
I tend to think that Dumbledore isn't exactly truthful in his expressed distrust of the field of Divination. He very rarely acts immediately on one piece of information, but he hires Trelawney on the spot after the prophecy. He doesn't even care that this gives more credibility to the otherwise dodgy incident. Many around here believe that Severus didn't take the prophecy too serious and only reported it to have something to report. All Dumbledore does from that day suggests that he firmly believes in the prophecy, no matter what he later says to Harry.
Re: Happy to disagree :)
1) I don't think we know that creating a single horcrux changes your appearance. If it doesn't, then Dumbledore wouldn't have identified the change with the creation of horcruxes at all.
2) There could easily be other Dark Magic that causes the practitioner's appearance to change like that.
3) Not a problem on the same level, but if Dumbledore knew about Voldemort having a horcrux that early, we've *really* got to ask why Dumbledore didn't start looking for horcruxes earlier than he did. This was loooong before the prophecy suggested how things would play out. I'd excuse him for not going after horcruxes right after Voldemort's interview, because he apparently hadn't done much yet, but Idon't think Dumbledore would have had *any* excuse for not looking at least as soon as the war started.
Knowing about the Harrycrux from the start makes Dumbledore look bad in some ways, but at least he seems less incompetent.
Re: Dumbledore's views of Divination: I *think* there's speculation that the whole thing, including his decision to hire Trelawney, was a ploy of some kind. At least until the prophecy started to come true. The fact that he let Severus leave with part of the prophecy, rather than Obliviating him, has been used as one reason to believe this. I'm not especially familiar with the theories surrounding that part of the books, though, so here I'll defer to people who are.
Lynn
Re: Happy to disagree :)
Still, hard to know how he interpreted the prophecy before he had any additional facts, so hard to use that alone as an explanation of his decisions.
Re: Happy to disagree :)
Re: Happy to disagree :)
About the almost omniscient part - we see him arriving very quickly to a correct conclusion (or strong hypothesis) regarding a very obscure matter of magic in GOF - when Harry tells him Voldemort used Harry's blood Albus has that gleam of something like triumph because he immediately recognizes the significance - which is that there is a chance for Harry to survive the destruction of the Horcrux. Despite the fact that this must have been a very rare magical occurrence with little, maybe only partial documentation in the past. So I think that if he really already knew that Lily's sacrifice caused Tom's AK to rebound on him and that Tom's body was not found all he needed was one close look at Harry to realize a bit of Tom's soul entered Harry's head, causing the scar.
Re: Happy to disagree :)
Alternatively, Albus may have had a different reason to place Harry at 4PD and he decided on the protection sometime over the course of the 24 hours. I once thought protecting Harry from Sirius could have been such a reason, but that makes no sense - Lily was in some kind of contact with Petunia. If Sirius was really Tom's spy, wouldn't he try to find out about Lily's contacts? Better send the boy somewhere that has no connection whatsoever to either of his parents or any of their close friends. Out of the country, if necessary.
And no, I can't take seriously the explanation he gave Minerva about protecting Harry from his own fame. Not when he didn't do anything to dampen it in Wizarding Britain, waiting for Harry's return.
So I think we'll have to accept that Albus had detailed knowledge of the attack and its outcome before sending Hagrid in the first place.
Re: Happy to disagree :)
Here I'm happy to agree with you. Our disagreement is only about how detailed. We know from canon that the Ministry can detect from a distance which spells are cast, if they want. I do believe that Dumbledore installed something similar at GH. I only doubt that this surveillance charms detected the accidental soul splitting. The Ancient Magic of Lily's sacrifice is a different matter. Voldemort says in GoF that he forgot about that possiblity. For him to forget about it, it must have been discussed somewhere as a theoretical idea before, even when it never happened.
So we have 3 AKs, two successful, one backfired; one case of Ancient (theoretical known) Magic and a weird accident. All these can be known to Dumbledore through his magic 'blackbox' attack recording device without going there.
BTW there isn't enough time - unless you consider the use of a time turner - for someone to have been there before Hagrid arrived. The Potters' cottage is in the village of Godric's Hollow, maybe on the outer rim, but still close to their Muggle and wizard neighbours. How long do you think it takes them to swarm the place of an explosion? It didn't happen in the middle of the night, twenty minutes at worst IMO.
Why don't we just agree to disagree on this tiny little detail which doesn't really influence the interpretation of the whole story or Dumbledore's character?
Don't get me even started on that. I've spent the last 12 months writing the Sirius-centered half of a post war AU fanfiction. In this fic Sirius spent his time beyond the veil thinking and the handling of the whole 'spy-in-the-order' business by Dumbledore gets him and me barking mad.
Unfortunately this is one of the reasons I don't think it's unusual for Dumbledore to have known Voldemort's Horcruxes for years without looking for them. That's what he always does. He waits, observes, gathers information and only at the last minute he acts. He doesn't act at all about Tom Riddle; he takes 5 to 12 years to confront Grindelwald; he probably knew about the spy for months, Order members are dying in the meantime, nothing....
Re: Happy to disagree :)
20 minutes are plenty. It takes Albus less than a minute to make himself a Portkey to wherever - we see it twice in OOTP. - so no need to go outside the Apparition wards. And we see that at least Albus can make Portkeys to/from Hogwarts as needed. (Though he doesn't do so in HBP when he takes Harry to the cave. More support to conspiracy theories regarding his expectations regarding Draco that night.)
I find it odd you don't find it OOC for Albus to not look for a Horcrux for decades but have an issue with him waiting one day to talk to Severus.
At this moment we can agree to disagree about the exact time Albus found out about the Harrycrux as long as we both agree it was within no more than days from Halloween. Though I think it matters regarding his character - I think it makes a difference if when he asked Severus to protect Harry he was talking in good faith or not. It is somewhat more understandable if he asked for Severus help believing he could destroy the Horcrux when he found it, then discovered what the situation really was and failed to inform Severus (perhaps believing such a revelation would be bad for him at the moment, ignoring the fact that it would be worse if delayed) than if he was insincere from the beginning.
Re: Happy to disagree :)
Not so much, when you consider that within that time Hagrid and Sirius have to arrive (not by Apparition), both discover what happened and Hagrid has to comfort a devastated Sirius. And 20 minutes is the most generous estimate; it could be as bad as 5 minutes. It took my neighbours about 2 two minutes to notice and get out on the street when a chimney caught fire in spring and that was certainly less noisy or spectacular than several green flashes and a house partially tumbling down.
OOC or IC is perhaps the wrong phrase. I'm generally ready to think the worst of Albus, but in this case I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt. Whether he intended to raise Harry to a likely instead of an inevitable death right from the beginning, it doesn't make that much difference to me.
The initial question was how could Albus know that Voldemort wasn't gone for good. The red eyes convince me. He is the only one who's eyes turn red. No other Dark Witch or Wizard shows the same change and I count at least the 3 Lestranges among serious Dark Wizards.
Why I think letting Severus wait so horrible and also unwise from Albus POV is that Severus is a suicidal mood from the moment he knows of Lily's death untill he's given a new purpose in life. That's the main difference between the two other occasion Dumbledore takes his time to talk (Harry in Ootp and Hagrid in GoF). They are unhappy, in mourning, depressed, but not suicidal.
I agreed with that right from the beginning.
Re: Happy to disagree :)
Yeah Dumbly plots and waits and shit. But he's also shown to act on things he's not entirely certain about, act on hunches. Sometimes in the hope that'll reveal more information.
I think he puts more faith in true divination than he seems to let on. He hires Firenze the centaur and he's the one able to get Umbridge back from the centaurs, all by himself, even after they're all pissed off at the hyoomins. So I read that as him having perhaps a longer-standing relationship with the centaurs. There's hints that the centaurs, while not perhaps predicting even something as "specific" as Trelawney's prophesy (if her prophesy can even be called specific,) that they could've known the war would repeat itself again at least. Like the hints in PS when the one centaur is talking about Mars and such. Right? I think it's more that Dumbly doesn't have a lot of faith in Trelawney as a seer, but he knows enough to recognize a true prophesy when he sees one, and takes her on after that.
So not great info, about Voldy specifically, but he in theory could've had hints from the centaurs and then also from Trelawney's phrophesy that this war wouldn't be the only one.
If he had any chance to interact with baby!Harry directly, he could've used legilimency on Harry. This opens up other possibilities. I didn't think of a spell-blackbox thing but that's a good one too. And Hagrid telling him what he saw at the house. Dumbly could've already decided to send Harry to Petunia's (they technically had some sort of connection but near as I can tell one or maybe two gifts over their adult years? Not huge. Sirius might not've been known or thought to know where Petunia lived. And I find this also kinda odd 'cause like, when Hagrid brings Harry to Petunia's he's specifically borrowed Sirius' bike for this duty so somehow Sirius wasn't yet under suspicion for giving them away? Like that does bother me but if so it at least ties up the "need to hide Harry from Sirius and Sirius might know how to find Petunia" issue.) Legilimancy could've shown him exactly the process of events that night, if not flat-out relating that a piece of Mouldy Voldy was stuck in Harry's brain somehow. So, divination from perhaps two sources, description of how Harry was found, perhaps legilimancy if he gets to interact with Harry before the big meet-up at Petunia's doorstep. He wouldn't need to make the connection with horcrux stuff right away, even then, to make a pretty damn good educated guess that a chunk of Voldy got stuck in Harry. Or at least that Voldy'd be back.
Hell he could've talked to Severus before (possibly) seeing Harry prior to Petunia's doorstep, and still chose to speak confidently about Voldy coming back, as perhaps an (manipulative, yes) attempt to keep Severus from falling toward suicide. Tap into Severus' love for Lily ("he has her eyes") and his need to protect or help defend shit, give him something of a purpose. Figure out with more certainty later on. Wouldn't even need to convince the WW that Voldy's coming back, not convince them right away at any rate. Lotsa folk seem to think he's gone for good, some seem to think (among some ex-DE's so this could be reported to Dumbly by Severus himself) Harry might even be the next great Dark Lord himself. Black-box magic wards, description of the house when Harry was grabbed, and a potential for using legilimency on Harry to at least see the sequence of events that night would give all the certainty Dumbly needed about the blood sacrifice protection. Hell Dumbly could've had a two-way mirror in their house for all anyone knows, granted he'd have to be watching that but anyway.
I just... like he could've figured out the horcrux stuff by then, sure, at least the Harrycrux, if not others. Or had a suspicion. I think though there's also other equally plausible explanations and it's really difficult to say which is more likely over the other. I like the discussion though (even if I'm coming in to it some years late, oops.)
-Mirazh
However complicated, he figured it out a long time before Harry's arrival at Hogwarts. He knew Tom had a Horcrux yet he didn't seek it. (We know he didn't because finding the ring was trivial.) So even if he didn't know that night about the Harrycrux he must have figured it out very shortly afterwards.
Gone... for good?
Considering how instantly Severus folds at Albus's argument, I think the DE's at least understand that however they may hope Tom's gone for good, they can't count on it.
Further, Crouch, in his son's trial, speaks of Voldemort as "exiled" and of the four's plan "to restore him to power." Not, "dead" and "restore him to life."
However, Tom in the graveyard asks his 'loyal followers' " how could you have believed I would not rise again? They, who knew the steps I took, long ago, to guard myself against mortal death?"
So it seems Tom expected the DE's to understand that he'd been killed that night but could still return to life, while the rest of the WW believed that something had happened to break YKW's powers and cause him to flee into exile.
Now, the WW also believed, entirely erroneously, that a fifteen-month-old toddler had something to do with what happened to Voldemort that night. Total BS: if Lily had been willing to sacrifice herself to save the family cat instead of her child, no one would call the cat responsible for Voldie's downfall. And BS that was deliberately promulgated by Albus.
"The Boy Who Lived" is a myth of Albus's creation, and he started promoting it within hours of the event. (Minerva knew by early morning, as was pointed out in a thread below.) I think "You Know Who is in exile, his powers broken," was another of Albus's myths.
Tom expected his DE's to have understood that he was killed that night but could be resurrected. And Albus knew, through his loyal agent, whatever was common knowledge among the DE's.
Simplest explanation? Severus had told Albus first: something's happened to my Dark Mark. I think the bastard got himself killed, but remember he'd told us followers that we couldn't count on him to stay dead? The Mark is gone but not really.
And Albus knew better than Severus (who seems never to have heard the word Horcrux) the only known mechanism by which that might be effected. So he poked around Godric's Hollow and found whatever object Tom had MEANT to turn into a Horcrux that night (mysefl, I like the Sword of Gryffindor--or perhaps the copy, smuggled to Tom by Severus), found it clean, and then checked the baby.
Oops. That's not how Albus had hoped the Prophecy would play out.
And Albus promoted the half-truth that Tom had been "exiled, his powers broken" because he didn't want anyone thinking in terms of looking for Riddle's Horcrux. Lest they find it.
Which came back to bite him in GoF, because Fudge, liike everyone in the WW (except the DE's) KNOWS that one of the immutable truths is that one absolutely cannont bring someone back from Death. So when Harry started babbling that Voldemort had been dead and been resurrected, well..... That part of the story is a clear lie or hallucination; why should anyone believe the rest?
Re: Gone... for good?
In POA Fudge believed that Sirius had the power to bring Voldemort back if he only went to Albania. So I don't think Fudge believed Voldemort was gone for good or dead or anything like that.
Re: Gone... for good?
And Albus knew better than Severus (who seems never to have heard the word Horcrux) the only known mechanism by which that might be effected.
So do you think Albus thought Tom was just bragging to the DEs, if he believed Tom was going to make his one and only Horcrux at Godric's Hollow (presumably with James' death)?
Re: Gone... for good?
Background: I believe the most likely time for Albus' research about Tom's background is the 10 year period when Tom was out of the country. That was when Albus first visited Little Hangleton. He found an abandoned Riddle House and desolate Gaunt hovel with nothing magical about either of them. (Of course this raises the question of why Albus never reported what he found about Riddle's crimes, and was willing to interview him without reporting to the Aurors.)
I also think the most likely time for Tom to hide the ring in the hovel was when he got control over the Riddle House under the guise of absentee landlord.
When Severus turned his coat he reported Tom claimed to have the ability to return from the dead or to be practically immortal or something along those lines. So he may have believed Tom had a Horcrux. He may have even thought to look for it. But perhaps he had reasons to avoid Little Hangleton. Maybe Tom was using the Riddle House as a hiding place for himself just like he did for parts of GOF. Or perhaps Albus thought Tom would keep his Horcrux in a place he controlled and checked on it every now and then, so stealing it and destroying it wasn't wise unless he also had a plan to get Tom killed soon.
Then came Halloween 1981. Severus reports his Mark was fading. Albus wonders if this has anything to do with the Potters - aren't they at Godric's Hollow? Hey, why can he remember where they are? The Fidelius must be broken! So he hops over to investigate (he can make himself a Portkey directly from his office as we see in OOTP) - and finds an object that does not belong, perhaps with signs that it was intended to become a Horcrux. (As well as the bodies of James and Lily, their wands wherever they were left lying, Harry, and no sign of Tom - who did leave his wand behind, what about clothes and stuff in his pockets?) He quickly works out why Harry lived and what Harry became, returns to Hogwarts and sends Hagrid on his mission. The finding of the proto-Horcrux at the crime scene was such strong evidence that Tom intended to make a Horcrux that night that Albus concludes Tom's prior claims of immortality were about a plan to make a Horcrux, not about one that already existed.
Re: Gone... for good?
Like it makes perfect sense. Dumbly hearing through Sev that Voldy didn't expect to die or had some vaguely-asserted assurances that he could even come back from death. Dumbly'd know about horcruxes, being Dumbly. Not sure how much I buy into him hoping the prophesy would turn out a certain way (though it's plausible, yes,) but spreading specific rumours for a certain intent is VERY plausible in my mind. He wouldn't have to figure out that Harry's the Harrycrux (but could easily figure that one out later, yeah, and perhaps more readily sure) and there's basic stuff about how he knew about the blood sacrifice ('cause Lily wouldn't have been able to give him that protection if Voldy hadn't actually given her the choice to be spared, but again even just a description of the house and shit, or perhaps a chance to use legilimancy on Harry before Petunia's, could seal that deal. Could've decided on Petunia's beforehand anyway. Both 'cause she's family and 'cause of the DELIBERATE fame shit Dumbly was spreading to have a certain effect, like you said, haha wow that's good.)
-Mirazh
Lynn
The result of just ONE horcrux was seen in the pensieve memory of Hokey. There is VERY little change - he is still quite handsome. If I recall correctly (?) he looks a bit 'waxen' - but I am not positive of that. We do however see the glint of red eyes.
So, creating 'A' horcrux doesn't really have much affect on a person's physical appearance. By the time of Tom's job interview he has had three objects in his hands that DID become horcruxes and enough murders for three horcruxes.
However, since this is the first time anyone has ever attempted more than one horcrux AND one horcrux does not great affect one's appearance, then I think it quite reasonable that Albus does not see Tom's changed appearance as evidence of horcrux-creation. I think what he DOES see it as is evidence of delving deeply into 'dark magic' and possibly even 10 years of very hard living.
It seems to me quite possible that Voldy's bragging to his DEs about possible immortality might also mean that there might even be other dark magic means than horcruxes. After all - it is only to Lucius and Bella that he gives any of his horcruxes. They are apparently the ones he entrusts to 'bring him back' and yet he doesn't really give them any true idea as to how to do it.
Bella believed she needed Tom's body - hence the torture of the Longbottoms for info. And while I feel pretty sure that Lucius thought the diary would 'do' something - I'm not convinced that he thought it would bring about a SECOND Tom Riddle. Lucius was better off WITHOUT Tom's return and he KNEW it!
So - I am not convinced that Albus had any idea that there might be another horcrux other than Harry until the Diary showed up. Which Harry destroyed - at which I think Albus sighed a sigh of relief until he thought more upon it and realized it was MEANT to be used.
At the very least, I think Albus knew Harry was a horcrux when he arrived at Hogwarts. He had been determined to not 'care' about the boy until his arrival (as per his talk with Harry at end of bk5) - at which point he was surprised to find Harry such a wonderful little boy that he just couldn't resist caring. -- Hwyla
And also, just what influence it might have made on Albus to see young Tom wearing a ring with the mark of the Hallows on it.
At that particular point in time (sometime after Tom's 5th year) Grindelwald is active and Albus doesn't appear to be doing anything about it. There is no telling whether Albus has an inkling as to whether Grindelwald is using the Elder Wand or not. And Albus doesn't yet know about the Potter Invisibility Cloak either.
So - I now wonder whether seeing a ring with the Deathly Hallows sign engraved in the stone, being worn by a student that Albus highly distrusts might have affected Albus' finally going after Grindelwald. And does Albus actually recognize this ring as a Hallow? -- Hwyla
What he thought when he saw Tom with the ring? I don't know if he recognized the ring as the resurrection stone or thought it was like Xeno's necklace - a piece of jewelry originally belonging to a Hallows Quester. Perhaps he thought Tom got involved with the Hallows Quest. (This could work with either identification of the ring.) So he should have been on the alert that Tom was pursuing immortality (even though the ring was somewhat of a red herring, as Tom didn't recognize the stone for what it was).
An interesting question was who was the person who offered Marvolo Gaunt a nice sum for the ring back in the day (some time before Merope left home in 1925). I think it was swythyv who suggested the person may have been an agent of Gellert's.
However, we did hear from Krum that the symbol WAS used by Grindelwald as his own symbol - hence the reason he got so hyped up about it when he saw Xeno wearing it at the wedding. So, I think I'm going to lean towards Albus seeing it as a sign that Tom admired Grindlewald.
We are not exactly sure when he began wearing it. I tended to see Horace's memory as taking place during Tom's 7th year. But he would have had the ring since the beginning of 6th. I would HOPE that IF he had been wearing it during 6th year that SOMEONE would have questioned him about it before making him HeadBoy - but as we have seen before (with James) one doesn't really have to be exemplary to become HeadBoy. -- Hwyla
When did Tom kill his father? Well, that depends. In GOF we are given the date of 50 years before summer 1994, before Tom's 7th year. In HBP Albus says it happened when Tom was in his 16th year - did he mean the summer he was 16 (actually his 17th year) - ie 1943, before Tom's 6th year or actually in his 16th year, ie when he was 15, in 1942?
I agree with Jodel that Tom's conversation with Morfin implies Tom only learned that day that the Gaunts were Slytherin's heirs and that his father was the Muggle living next door. Since diary!Tom knew these things this places the acquisition of the ring in summer 1942. But the other 2 readings are quite plausible, with a different interpretation of Tom's interaction with Morfin.
Anyway, Jodel goes on to suggest that it was the conversation with Morfin that motivated Tom to seek the Chamber of Secrets in earnest, and the experience of modifying his memory that led to his experiments in recording his own memories in the diary. Maybe.
I would HOPE that IF he had been wearing it during 6th year that SOMEONE would have questioned him about it before making him HeadBoy
I doubt it. Would anyone have questioned the Lovegoods? The ring did nothing to Horace's trust in Tom.