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The World of Severus Snape

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Plus, don't you think Sirius and Remus would have played up to Harry about how James was so brave and good that he rescued slimy Snivellus *before he could even transform,* putting himself in terrible danger? That they didn't say anything of the kind during their various attempts to paint James as lily-white as possible

Are you thinking of Dumbledore (who at the time he told Harry about this, I believe did not know)? I didn't get this from Sirius and Remus. They get a little shifty and say things which amount to "yeah, he was a jerk, but please don't judge him too fast". I don't think they addressed the Shack incident at all, but I'd have to look. I wouldn't call it "painting him lily-white", anyway.

And we know that it likely happened later, rather than earlier, in the year since it was *fifth* year and Sirius was *sixteen.* Nothing indicates that Sirius had a birthday like Hermione's in the first weeks of the school year. Not that it's impossible, but given the way the circumstantial evidence fits together I see it as far more likely that it was not early in the year

We can't say anything for sure except that it has to be between Sept 1 1959 and August 31 1960 for him to have been in the school year he was in.

We can possibly take a hint from the way he talks about having run away from home that year. He says he was "about sixteen". Sixteen not being a round number (like ten or twenty) I think what he means is that he had not quite had his sixteenth birthday, but was close to it. Then he says he "camped out at [Harry's] dad's in the school holidays" before getting his own place when he was seventeen. He can't mean just the summer holidays or he would not be sixteen during fifth year, which he has to be, so that pushes it back to before Easter hols at least, but that's only March. If he's including the Christmas holidays, then that's all the way back into December at least. (I suppose it's possible he stayed at Hogwarts during Christmas and Easter but with the talk of "they adopted me like a second son" I think he means he went home with James at those times.)

Interview canon (which I am fine with for trivial things like birthdays) is that Sirius was "about" 22 when he went to Azkaban, which, as above, I take to mean that he was near his 22nd birthday but hadn't had it yet. That'd make him nearly 22 around Halloween 1981, for a birthday perhaps in November 1959.

All in all I don't think either interpretation (that Shack and SWM were very close together, or that they were not) can be said to be "more likely" in a provable sense. As ever, JKR's timelines are frustratingly vague.
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