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This thread is not for discussing how Severus Snape might have survived Nagini's bite but about whether we can come up with scenarios in which Voldemort isn't motivated to attack him in the first place (ignoring the possibility of Voldemort killing Severus with no clear reason other than 'because he felt like it'). For each scenario try to figure out what had to happen to bring it about and how the outcome of the entire saga would have differed from canon.
For example, if Voldemort had figured out that Draco's disarming of Dumbledore counted as 'defeating' him and made Draco rather than Severus the master of the wand he would have set Nagini on Draco instead. Draco would have died. If the second clause of Severus' Unbreakable Vow to Narcissa were still in effect (no consensus on this point in fandom) Severus would have died too when Draco did. By killing Draco Voldemort would have gained mastery of the Elder Wand, if this happened before the events of Malfoy Manor. Since the wand is indeed more powerful than a normal one (as evidenced by Harry using it to repair his own broken wand) there would be a chance that Voldemort's AK would have killed not only the Horcrux but Harry as well, despite the connection to Voldemort's body through Harry's blood. Harry's willing death would still protect the defenders from Voldemort, but not anyone else. The dead Harry would have been brought in front of the school as in canon. Neville would have killed Nagini, thus destroying the last Horcrux. Any AK Voldemort would have cast on a castle defender should have normally rebound on him because of Harry's willing death, however I wonder if the Elder Wand can over come such protection? And if it can, then perhaps Neville would have been burned to death under the Sorting Hat? If so it would have been a hard task to kill Nagini and Voldemort, resulting in many more deaths until the end of the battle. (If the Unbreakable Vow was no longer in force then Draco and Harry die, Severus survives. Perhaps he would have been able to help deal with Nagini and Voldemort himself.) For this scenario to happen Voldemort had to know the details surrounding Dumbledore's death and to sit and think logically so as to realize that already two times mastery of the wand was transferred without the death of the previous holder.
(Had Severus died the only way for Harry to learn he was a Horcrux and therefore had to die willingly would have been from Dumbledore's portrait. Even without access to the headmaster's office Dumbledore could have spoken to him from one of the other portraits in the building. However Severus' early death would have resulted in a worsening of the state of students and teachers.)
A second scenario: Severus finds out that Voldemort is after the Elder Wand and that the wand is in Dumbledore's grave. How? Maybe Phineas picks something up from the trio's conversations. Or Dumbledore's portrait decides to tell him. If Severus has any clue about Voldemort's searches can he use his authority and power as serving headmaster to force Dumbledore's portrait to tell him? So once Severus knows, what would he do? As he understand the situation, he has to live long enough to be around to deliver Harry the information about him being a Horcrux. I think he would also want to prevent Voldemort access to the Elder Wand because he does not trust Voldemort not to figure out that Draco is its current master. In this case, I think Severus would want to replace the wand in Dumbledore's grave. Preferably with Dumbledore's original wand, if Severus can get the portrait to tell him where it is, but if not then a wand from a wandmaker other than Ollivander would do. Then he would hide the Elder Wand somewhere inaccessible and unexpected. To cover up he would modify Draco's memory so that it would appear that the wand in the grave was the one Dumbledore used on his last night. And perhaps Severus would remove from his own mind any memories relating to his dealings with the wand.
So what happens now? Voldemort's search for the wand takes place as in canon. Around Easter he kills Grindelwald and arrives at Hogwarts to take the wand from Dumbledore's grave - but he finds some other wand there. I think he would interrogate Severus, but would find nothing amiss with Severus' conduct, as in the past. He may interrogate Draco as well and find corroboration of Severus' version (this part of the plan falls if Voldemort already performed Legilimency on Draco between Dumbledore's death and Severus' realization about the wand). If Severus can convince Voldemort that Dumbledore switched wands before Severus killed him he may possibly spare Severus. Or he may kill him on the spot out of frustration that he would never have the Elder Wand. At that point Harry was still at large and the Horcrux search still unknown to Voldemort, so perhaps Voldemort would think he still had time and he still needed Severus as headmaster during this time, and decide against killing him. Voldemort's problem is though, how to attack Harry when the time comes. Examination of the wands taken from the trio in Malfoy Manor would prove that Harry's holly-and-phoenix feather wand was broken, therefore there would be no danger of a repeat of Priori Incantatem, and Voldemort may decide to use his own wand. However since this wand already failed to kill Harry several times as did Lucius' wand, the alternative would be to set Nagini on Harry.
Harry arrives at Hogwarts to search for the Ravenclaw Horcrux, Voldemort prepares for attack on the school as in canon, except he does not attack Severus. Severus escapes so as not to have to fight the teachers nor open the school to Voldemort and sees Nagini under protection. He sends the doe Patronus to call Harry to an encounter where he tells him all, including Harry's status as Horcrux, Harry explains to Severus about the other Horcruxes and where they stand. Harry and friends take care of the cup and diadem, while Severus remains hidden. Then Harry and Severus have to tackle Harry, Nagini and Voldemort. I think their best chance is if Harry goes to offer himself with Severus accompanying him disillusioned, or perhaps Severus brings Harry as his 'prisoner'. (Perhaps it would have helped to have more support, but with only Ron and Hermione knowing anything about Horcruxes I can't imagine Harry and Severus being able to convince anyone else that Harry's voluntary death isn't the result of another act of treachery by Severus. I doubt Ron could be convinced, and I can't see Harry involving Hermione but not Ron. At most Harry would tell friends about Nagini.)
Option 1: Voldemort attacks Harry with a wand (either the yew wand or a borrowed one). Harry falls but lives, due to blood connection, Voldemort collapses because he destroyed his own Horcrux. Severus can't kill Nagini because she is protected. Severus is the first to check on Harry, and finds he is still alive. Of course he remains silent about the revelation. When Voldemort recovers he releases Nagini from her protection, as it isn't needed. Events continue very much like in canon except Severus is the one who kills Nagini rather than Neville. Harry's sacrifice protects the defenders and himself from Voldemort. This enables him to play dead as in canon and causes Voldemort's second AK to rebound as in canon.
Option 2: Voldemort sets Nagini on Harry. This one is harder to analyze because there are more unknowns. Harry bleeds profusely but remains just barely alive, because Voldemort still lives in a body made with Harry's blood. The Horcrux is not destroyed - after all, it wasn't destroyed when Harry nearly died from the basilisk's bite. Voldemort sees Harry still lives, so he AKs him (with whichever wand). This destroys the Horcrux and causes Voldemort to collapse. Severus checks on Harry and notices he is still (just barely) alive - and slips him whatever he might need to survive while keeping the pretense - probably Draught of Living Death. If he manages that then perhaps Harry will be brought in front of the school as in canon, Severus will kill Nagini, everyone will duel everyone. If Voldemort tries to AK anyone the spell will rebound on him and kill him. Meanwhile Severus will take Harry aside and heal him.
Alternatively: Severus replaces the wand in the tomb, Voldemort kills Severus in frustration over not getting the Elder Wand. He replaces Severus with another DE, making things hard at Hogwarts. Less than a month later Harry arrives to search for the Ravenclaw Horcrux. He receives the missing information from Dumbledore's portrait. Harry goes to die. If Voldemort AKs him, things continue as in canon. If Voldemort sets Nagini on him, Harry still lives, so Voldemort AKs him, destroys Horcrux, collapses. When Voldemort comes to he finds Harry who is just barely alive. If he is convinced Harry is dead, continue as above, except Nagini is killed by Neville and Madam Pomfrey heals Harry. If he believes Harry is still alive - I think he tries to kill him again and vaporizes (with Nagini being his remaining Horcrux). Only if Voldemort gets someone else to kill Harry would Harry die and I don't think this is likely. If Voldemort vaporizes I think the DEs would lose spirit, but one of them might kill Harry in revenge.
Am I correct in my analysis? Can anyone find serious mistakes in any of them? Can anyone come up with more scenarios?
If my analysis is correct then my conclusion is that there were so many other factors protecting Harry (the fact that Voldemort's body was made with his blood, his non-resistance to Voldemort and Voldemort's insistence to be the one to kill Harry) that his mastery of the Elder Wand was not necessary for his success. What mattered was that Voldemort did not master the wand, because the powers of the Elder Wand were the only thing that could have possibly overcome the other protections. Notice that any scenario in which Voldemort is not the master of the Elder Wand, Harry should survive (though sometimes just barely) any attack on him as long as Voldemort has his current body. Also after Harry's sacrifice Voldemort is incapable of killing anyone and any AK by him should rebound. The risks are from someone other than Voldemort attempting to kill Harry when Voldemort no longer has his body - something that can happen only if Voldemort 'dies' while a Horcrux (namely Nagini) is still alive. In canon this is what would have happened had Voldemort realized Harry survived the first AK in the forest and attempted to AK him again before Neville killed Nagini - a turn of events averted by Narcissa's lie.
Until his death Dumbledore was planning that his arranged assisted suicide by Severus would cause the wand to lose its powers. He made no back-up plan - had he died from the ring, cursed by Voldemort or from Voldemort's potion, Voldemort would have defeated him and become the master of the Elder Wand (leaving hiding it as the only recourse). After he died Dumbledore's strategy to protect the wand relied on confusing the matter of its mastery rather than making the wand inaccessible. The strategy was risky - it could have failed completely had Voldemort thought the situation out. Severus didn't even know Voldemort was not to find out that Draco had disarmed Dumbledore. He may have even revealed this information in attempt to protect Draco, to show how close he had been to success in his mission.
So why did Dumbledore choose this poor strategy to keep the Wand from Voldemort? Draco's defeat of Dumbledore caused the Elder Wand to retain its powers. At the very least Dumbledore feared that knowledge of the wand's identity would cause Severus to seek its power for himself (even if initially for a good cause, such as defeating Voldemort), and that like Dumbledore Severus wouldn't be able to let it go. This shows that Dumbledore had no understanding of Severus' moral growth since his defection so many years previously - not very surprising for a man who did not recognize how many people had a better sense of morality than himself).
(Though at least this analysis appears to suggest the whole thing was *not* a deliberate set-up to ensure Severus' death before the end of the war, as the very scenario he failed to prevent was the one where Draco would have died in Severus' place. So any AU in which Dumbledore helps Severus survive after the trio's escape from Malfoy Manor, when the Elder Wand's mastery slipped almost completely away from Voldemort - as long as Harry was going to surrender willingly, should be compliant with Dumbledore's intentions.)
(Had Severus died the only way for Harry to learn he was a Horcrux and therefore had to die willingly would have been from Dumbledore's portrait. Even without access to the headmaster's office Dumbledore could have spoken to him from one of the other portraits in the building. However Severus' early death would have resulted in a worsening of the state of students and teachers.)
A second scenario: Severus finds out that Voldemort is after the Elder Wand and that the wand is in Dumbledore's grave. How? Maybe Phineas picks something up from the trio's conversations. Or Dumbledore's portrait decides to tell him. If Severus has any clue about Voldemort's searches can he use his authority and power as serving headmaster to force Dumbledore's portrait to tell him? So once Severus knows, what would he do? As he understand the situation, he has to live long enough to be around to deliver Harry the information about him being a Horcrux. I think he would also want to prevent Voldemort access to the Elder Wand because he does not trust Voldemort not to figure out that Draco is its current master. In this case, I think Severus would want to replace the wand in Dumbledore's grave. Preferably with Dumbledore's original wand, if Severus can get the portrait to tell him where it is, but if not then a wand from a wandmaker other than Ollivander would do. Then he would hide the Elder Wand somewhere inaccessible and unexpected. To cover up he would modify Draco's memory so that it would appear that the wand in the grave was the one Dumbledore used on his last night. And perhaps Severus would remove from his own mind any memories relating to his dealings with the wand.
So what happens now? Voldemort's search for the wand takes place as in canon. Around Easter he kills Grindelwald and arrives at Hogwarts to take the wand from Dumbledore's grave - but he finds some other wand there. I think he would interrogate Severus, but would find nothing amiss with Severus' conduct, as in the past. He may interrogate Draco as well and find corroboration of Severus' version (this part of the plan falls if Voldemort already performed Legilimency on Draco between Dumbledore's death and Severus' realization about the wand). If Severus can convince Voldemort that Dumbledore switched wands before Severus killed him he may possibly spare Severus. Or he may kill him on the spot out of frustration that he would never have the Elder Wand. At that point Harry was still at large and the Horcrux search still unknown to Voldemort, so perhaps Voldemort would think he still had time and he still needed Severus as headmaster during this time, and decide against killing him. Voldemort's problem is though, how to attack Harry when the time comes. Examination of the wands taken from the trio in Malfoy Manor would prove that Harry's holly-and-phoenix feather wand was broken, therefore there would be no danger of a repeat of Priori Incantatem, and Voldemort may decide to use his own wand. However since this wand already failed to kill Harry several times as did Lucius' wand, the alternative would be to set Nagini on Harry.
Harry arrives at Hogwarts to search for the Ravenclaw Horcrux, Voldemort prepares for attack on the school as in canon, except he does not attack Severus. Severus escapes so as not to have to fight the teachers nor open the school to Voldemort and sees Nagini under protection. He sends the doe Patronus to call Harry to an encounter where he tells him all, including Harry's status as Horcrux, Harry explains to Severus about the other Horcruxes and where they stand. Harry and friends take care of the cup and diadem, while Severus remains hidden. Then Harry and Severus have to tackle Harry, Nagini and Voldemort. I think their best chance is if Harry goes to offer himself with Severus accompanying him disillusioned, or perhaps Severus brings Harry as his 'prisoner'. (Perhaps it would have helped to have more support, but with only Ron and Hermione knowing anything about Horcruxes I can't imagine Harry and Severus being able to convince anyone else that Harry's voluntary death isn't the result of another act of treachery by Severus. I doubt Ron could be convinced, and I can't see Harry involving Hermione but not Ron. At most Harry would tell friends about Nagini.)
Option 1: Voldemort attacks Harry with a wand (either the yew wand or a borrowed one). Harry falls but lives, due to blood connection, Voldemort collapses because he destroyed his own Horcrux. Severus can't kill Nagini because she is protected. Severus is the first to check on Harry, and finds he is still alive. Of course he remains silent about the revelation. When Voldemort recovers he releases Nagini from her protection, as it isn't needed. Events continue very much like in canon except Severus is the one who kills Nagini rather than Neville. Harry's sacrifice protects the defenders and himself from Voldemort. This enables him to play dead as in canon and causes Voldemort's second AK to rebound as in canon.
Option 2: Voldemort sets Nagini on Harry. This one is harder to analyze because there are more unknowns. Harry bleeds profusely but remains just barely alive, because Voldemort still lives in a body made with Harry's blood. The Horcrux is not destroyed - after all, it wasn't destroyed when Harry nearly died from the basilisk's bite. Voldemort sees Harry still lives, so he AKs him (with whichever wand). This destroys the Horcrux and causes Voldemort to collapse. Severus checks on Harry and notices he is still (just barely) alive - and slips him whatever he might need to survive while keeping the pretense - probably Draught of Living Death. If he manages that then perhaps Harry will be brought in front of the school as in canon, Severus will kill Nagini, everyone will duel everyone. If Voldemort tries to AK anyone the spell will rebound on him and kill him. Meanwhile Severus will take Harry aside and heal him.
Alternatively: Severus replaces the wand in the tomb, Voldemort kills Severus in frustration over not getting the Elder Wand. He replaces Severus with another DE, making things hard at Hogwarts. Less than a month later Harry arrives to search for the Ravenclaw Horcrux. He receives the missing information from Dumbledore's portrait. Harry goes to die. If Voldemort AKs him, things continue as in canon. If Voldemort sets Nagini on him, Harry still lives, so Voldemort AKs him, destroys Horcrux, collapses. When Voldemort comes to he finds Harry who is just barely alive. If he is convinced Harry is dead, continue as above, except Nagini is killed by Neville and Madam Pomfrey heals Harry. If he believes Harry is still alive - I think he tries to kill him again and vaporizes (with Nagini being his remaining Horcrux). Only if Voldemort gets someone else to kill Harry would Harry die and I don't think this is likely. If Voldemort vaporizes I think the DEs would lose spirit, but one of them might kill Harry in revenge.
Am I correct in my analysis? Can anyone find serious mistakes in any of them? Can anyone come up with more scenarios?
If my analysis is correct then my conclusion is that there were so many other factors protecting Harry (the fact that Voldemort's body was made with his blood, his non-resistance to Voldemort and Voldemort's insistence to be the one to kill Harry) that his mastery of the Elder Wand was not necessary for his success. What mattered was that Voldemort did not master the wand, because the powers of the Elder Wand were the only thing that could have possibly overcome the other protections. Notice that any scenario in which Voldemort is not the master of the Elder Wand, Harry should survive (though sometimes just barely) any attack on him as long as Voldemort has his current body. Also after Harry's sacrifice Voldemort is incapable of killing anyone and any AK by him should rebound. The risks are from someone other than Voldemort attempting to kill Harry when Voldemort no longer has his body - something that can happen only if Voldemort 'dies' while a Horcrux (namely Nagini) is still alive. In canon this is what would have happened had Voldemort realized Harry survived the first AK in the forest and attempted to AK him again before Neville killed Nagini - a turn of events averted by Narcissa's lie.
Until his death Dumbledore was planning that his arranged assisted suicide by Severus would cause the wand to lose its powers. He made no back-up plan - had he died from the ring, cursed by Voldemort or from Voldemort's potion, Voldemort would have defeated him and become the master of the Elder Wand (leaving hiding it as the only recourse). After he died Dumbledore's strategy to protect the wand relied on confusing the matter of its mastery rather than making the wand inaccessible. The strategy was risky - it could have failed completely had Voldemort thought the situation out. Severus didn't even know Voldemort was not to find out that Draco had disarmed Dumbledore. He may have even revealed this information in attempt to protect Draco, to show how close he had been to success in his mission.
So why did Dumbledore choose this poor strategy to keep the Wand from Voldemort? Draco's defeat of Dumbledore caused the Elder Wand to retain its powers. At the very least Dumbledore feared that knowledge of the wand's identity would cause Severus to seek its power for himself (even if initially for a good cause, such as defeating Voldemort), and that like Dumbledore Severus wouldn't be able to let it go. This shows that Dumbledore had no understanding of Severus' moral growth since his defection so many years previously - not very surprising for a man who did not recognize how many people had a better sense of morality than himself).
(Though at least this analysis appears to suggest the whole thing was *not* a deliberate set-up to ensure Severus' death before the end of the war, as the very scenario he failed to prevent was the one where Draco would have died in Severus' place. So any AU in which Dumbledore helps Severus survive after the trio's escape from Malfoy Manor, when the Elder Wand's mastery slipped almost completely away from Voldemort - as long as Harry was going to surrender willingly, should be compliant with Dumbledore's intentions.)