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The World of Severus Snape

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Re: First War, part 2

He would have turned 16 in the first term of his 5th year, could have gotten his Mark during Christmas break, left school that summer, after OWLs.

He could have, but why assume that he got the Mark ASAP? It could be any time up until he turned 17.

Voldemort's trip to the cave with Kreacher could have taken place in the autumn of 1978

Not if he had joined the previous Christmas. Kreacher tells us that that happened a year after Regulus joined. That might not be exactly a year, but I doubt if it's more than a month in either direction, or it would be worded differently ("less than a year" for example).

Regulus' Horcrux theft and suicide would have taken place in early 1979

Unlikely if you are positing the cave trip for Kreacher and Voldemort was autumn 1978. Kreacher doesn't say outright, but I got the impression these were not too far apart, certainly not as much as two months:

‘Master Regulus told Kreacher to stay hidden, and not to leave the house. And then ... it was a little while later ... Master Regulus came to find Kreacher in his cupboard one night, and Master Regulus was strange, not as he usually was, disturbed in his mind, Kreacher could tell ... and he asked Kreacher to take him to the cave

"A little while later" is kind of vague. It sounds to me to be somewhere between a few days and a couple of weeks.

I also favour an autumn birthday for Regulus, but I like this timeline:

Regulus turns 16 around Sept/Oct 1977
After his OWLs, he decides not to go back to school anymore and joins the Death Eaters sometime that summer (1978)
Voldemort asks him for the loan of Kreacher about a year later, in the summer of 1979
Somewhere between a few days and a few weeks after that, he returns to the cave and dies

All of which would make his death sometime in the summer or possibly autumn of 1979, although of course the whole thing can be moved forwards or backwards depending on when exactly his birthday is. (My thinking of him as a Libra is entirely personal canon, no text support.)
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