I think it's bullshit. Why hasn't the messager visited any of the teams? Why all the paranoid secrecy? And when we've killed a Judge and nothing's shown up to smite of us, then what the fuck are we supposed to believe these warnings are about?
As for the idea that it's about Ophiuchus . . . Two of them have had their ties completely severed, and still nothing's happened, so there's probably nothing to worry about there either.