That's what I think. Jason's history as Red Hood/Bad Batman is being used as a red herring here for something else. What, I don't know.
OTOH, if it is Jason, I think it could still work - because I don't see Jason dropping out of the game completely at this point. (Unless Morrison is just going to abandon Jay's characterization as of the end of BftC, which...well, Morrison.)
True dat about Jason self-identifying as family - even to the point, early on, of telling Bats if he failed the "Robin Test" he insisted on taking he'd go back to living quietly in the mansion "and be proud to call myself Bruce Wayne's son." (I think that's the line, or close.) He did have a loving relationship with a stepmother, who he nursed through (possibly drug-related) illness and death prior to meeting Bats, but what's that but another abandonment?